A week of selling left Canada's precious-metal and crude-oil ETFs lower across the board to Friday 12 June, as the war between the United States and Iran kept the threat of higher inflation, and tighter central-bank policy, squarely in view. Silver funds took the heaviest hit. What stood out, though, was that money kept coming in: the group drew more than half a billion Canadian dollars even as prices fell. By Monday morning the backdrop had already shifted, with a weekend peace agreement pushing oil to a two-month low and lifting metals for a third session running, a turn that landed too late to register in the Friday-close figures below. Over the week, precious-metal ETFs gave up 3.82% on average and the country's two oil funds 2.57%.

An Energy Shock and a Hawkish Turn

The damage traced back to a single source: energy. Since fighting broke out in late February, the Strait of Hormuz had been all but closed, throttling close to a fifth of the world's seaborne oil and holding crude prices high. Brent changed hands near $84.88 a barrel on Friday, off roughly 6% on the week yet still more than a fifth above where it sat before the conflict. Those elevated costs rippled into the inflation data. May's US producer prices ran 6.5% higher than a year earlier, the European Central Bank raised rates on Thursday for the first time since 2023 and nudged up its 2026 and 2027 inflation projections, and traders moved to price in a Federal Reserve increase before the year is out. A stronger US dollar and richer Treasury yields did the rest, sapping appetite for metals that throw off no income. Gold drifted around $4,200 an ounce into Friday, on course for a second straight weekly loss, while silver languished near $67, facing a fifth weekly decline in a row.

Ceasefire Hopes Over the Weekend

Then the script flipped. Over the weekend Washington and Tehran agreed terms for peace, with a signing scheduled in Switzerland for 19 June. The reported provisions run from the removal of blockades and sanctions relief to the dismantling of Iran's nuclear programme and, the part markets cared about most, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz within days. Crude reacted at once, sliding more than 5% on Monday to roughly $80 a barrel and a two-month low, as the return of Gulf supply drained the inflation premium that had been bearing down on the metals. Gold pushed back above $4,300 and silver climbed toward $71, a third straight session of gains.

Canadian ETF Performance

For all the red on the screen, the flow data tells a buy-the-dip story. The 31 Canadian precious-metal ETFs followed by Trackinsight slipped 3.82% on the week yet pulled in C$510.8 million of fresh money, even with the group still 3.10% lower for the year and holding C$9.06 billion in assets.

Gold did the heavy lifting. The 16 gold funds, worth C$7.97 billion between them, eased 3.56% but gathered C$506.7 million over the week, and the great majority arrived through one product. BMO Gold Bullion Hedged to CAD ETF (ZGLH) alone took in C$342.1 million, a sum that tops its entire year-to-date net of C$314.0 million and points to the week clawing back earlier redemptions, even as the fund itself fell 4.15%. Purpose Gold Bullion Fund, CAD-Hedged (KILO) proved the most resilient on price, dipping just 2.61% while adding C$1.5 million.

Silver bore the brunt of the sell-off. Its 11 funds dropped 5.78% on the week, though they too finished in positive flow at C$3.7 million. iShares Silver Bullion ETF, CAD-Hedged (SVR), the segment's largest at C$487.2 million, was the weakest performer of the week at 7.86% and sits 7.59% lower for the year, yet accounted for virtually all of those silver inflows. Purpose Silver Bullion Trust ETF (SBT.B) lost 7.73%, with flows effectively unchanged.

Oil remains the year's outlier. Canada's two crude funds dipped 2.57% on the week but are still up 36.26% in 2026, a legacy of the price spike that began in late February. Global X Crude Oil ETF (HUC), the only fund of real scale in the segment, drew no net flows over the week. Should the ceasefire hold, Monday's drop suggests that lead could erode in a hurry.

The Week Ahead

Policy now takes centre stage. The Federal Reserve meets this week for the first time under new chair Kevin Warsh and is widely tipped to leave rates unchanged, a decision the metals will watch closely after weeks of hike speculation. The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to hold as well, while the Bank of Japan looks set to raise rates in defence of the yen. With the Hormuz premium draining out of oil, the inflation case that drove last week's selling has weakened, and whether the metals' Monday bounce extends will turn on how firmly the ceasefire, and the central banks, hold the line.

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Please note this article is for information purposes only and does not in any way constitute investment advice. It is essential that you seek advice from a registered financial professional prior to making any investment decision.